Brazil in the Twenty-First-Century International Trade: Challenges and Opportunities

This chapter discusses the impacts of globalization on international trade patterns and the required shifts in trade policies. Highlighting the effects of production fragmentation, geographic dispersion and the expansion of global value chains (GVCs), the chapter outlines the Brazilian experience to illustrate the difficulties that various countries face in acknowledging this economic reality and providing appropriate policy responses. It draws on the global value chains literature to analyze Brazil’s foreign trade policies implemented during the recent ruling of the Labor Party (PT) presidents Lula da Silva and Dilma Rousseff (2003 to 2015), discussing the Brazilian strategy (or the lack of one) to integrate into global value chains. Results of this exercise have led to the conclusion that a non–GVC-oriented trade policy has allowed Brazil to integrate only superficially into globalized international production and commercial flows. The chapter concludes providing an outlook on the policy shifts required for increasing Brazil’s insertion into global value chains and boosting a more prominent role in international trade

Cadeias globais de valor e os novos padrões de comércio internacional : uma análise comparada das estratégias de inserção de Brasil e Canadá

Tese (doutorado)—Universidade de Brasília,Instituto de Relações Internacionais, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Relações Internacionais, 2014.Esta tese chama atenção para a importância da compreensão da globalização produtiva e comercial para a formulação e análise de políticas comerciais contemporâneas. Partindo do conceito de “cadeias globais de valor (CGVs)”, a tese advoca a existência de um “modelo cognitivo” ou “visão de mundo” construída em torno de um arcabouço teórico explicativo multidisciplinar sob o qual desenvolveu-se a representação dessa estrutura material globalizada, onde a fragmentação e dispersão geográfica da produção se tornam centrais. Destaca o aporte que esse modelo traz para justificar o liberalismo comercial e a eliminação de um conjunto “heterodoxo” de novas barreiras ao comércio, enfatizando os altos custos da proteção. Argumenta, no entanto, que o etos liberalizante embutido no conceito de CGVslimita-se ao “liberalismo de redes” em contraposição ao “liberalismo multilateral”. O trabalho discute as implicações desse modelo explicativo para a política comercial, analisando especificamente as estratégias de inserção no comércio internacional adotadas por Brasil e Canadá na última década. Para realizar a comparação entre os dois países, a tese propõe o conceito de “política comercial orientada pelo modelo das cadeias globais de valor”, composto por quatro variáveis que são aplicadas à experiência empírica brasileira e canadense: i) adoção de uma definição ampla de comércio internacional (“comércio integrado”); ii) facilitação de acesso ao mercado doméstico e busca por acesso privilegiado a mercados chaves; iii) reconhecimento de barreiras ao comércio heterodoxas e busca por sua eliminação; iv) promoção comercial voltada para a integração de pequenas e médias empresas em cadeias globais de valor. Como resultado da pesquisa, observa-se que o Canadá pode ser incluído dentre uma primeira geração de países que adotaram políticas comerciais explicitamente informadas pelo modelo cognitivo das CGVs. Por outro lado, no caso brasileiro, as políticas comerciais implementadas na última década demonstram uma posição ambivalente frente à globalização econômica, permitindo que o País se integre apenas superficialmente aos fluxos produtivos e comerciais internacionais. Argumenta-se que a limitação desta integração deva-se, em grande parte, às políticas comerciais não orientadas pelo modelo das CGVs, voltadas para a proteção e reserva de mercado doméstico e regional. A política comercial brasileira, construída no contexto de um projeto estratégico de desenvolvimento, tem sido moldada segundo uma visão de mundo na qual predomina a antiga clivagem Norte-Sul. Assim, policymakers têm observado com cautela a globalização produtiva, buscando antes blindar o País de seus impactos do que propriamente integrá-lo de forma competitiva à tendência de fragmentação e dispersão da produção. O trabalho enfatiza, por fim, a utilidade do modelo das CGVs para uma análise profunda sobre os desafios e possibilidades reais de posicionamento competitivo do Brasil na economia globalizada, tendo em conta as estratégias adotadas por países competidores, como o Canadá. Argumenta, em conclusão, que possíveis reorientações em direção ao modelo das CGVs sejam realizadas de forma crítica e embasadas em análises subseqüentes acerca de níveis ideais de liberalização que levem em consideração as oportunidades de upgrading produtivo e tecnológico proporcionadas pela participação em cadeias globais de valor. _______________________________________________________________________________________ ABSTRACTThis dissertation points out that contemporary trade policymaking must take into account the globalization of production and trade. Building upon the “global value chains” concept, the dissertation advocates that a “cognitive model” or a “mindset” has developed from a multidisciplinary theoretical framework that represents this globalized material structure, in which the fragmentation and geographic dispersion of production has taken center stage. It highlights the contribution that this model brings to legitimate trade liberalism and the elimination of a set of heterodox trade barriers, underscoring the high costs of protection. The dissertation argues, however, that the liberalizing ethos embedded in the GVCs’ concept is limited to the “network liberalism” in opposition to the “multilateral liberalism”. This dissertation discusses the implications of the GVCs’ model to commercial policy, focusing on the trade strategies that Brazil and Canada have implemented throughout the last ten years. It develops the concept of “GVCs-oriented trade policy”, which is applied in the comparison between the two cases. The concept encompasses four variables, which are tested against Brazil’s and Canada’s empirical experiences: i) the adoption of an integrated trade concept; ii) measures aimed at facilitating access to the domestic market for importing world class components and inputs, as well as seeking improved market access in key markets (mainly through the negotiation of preferential trade agreements); iii) recognition of untraditional trade barriers, seeking to eliminate them; iv) development of trade promotion mechanisms aimed at integrating small and medium enterprises into global value chains (mainly through links with lead firms/first and second tiers suppliers). Research results point out that Canada can be included among a first generation of countries that have adopted trade policies explicitly informed by the GVCs’ cognitive model. On the other hand, in the Brazilian case, trade policies implemented in the last ten years have shown an ambivalent stance towards economic globalization, which have allowed the country to integrate only superficially into international productive and commercial flows. The dissertation argues that the limitation of this integration derives from trade policies that are not GVCs-oriented. Brazil’s trade strategy, embedded in a development project, has been crafted based on the traditional North-South dichotomy. Therefore, instead of pursuing a competitive integration into global production and trade, Brazil has sought to shield itself from the trend of fragmented and geographically dispersed production. The dissertation underscores, in addition, the relevance of applying the GVCs’ cognitive model to conduct a deep analysis of the challenges and real possibilities of competitively positioning Brazil in the global economy, in light of the strategies competing countries, such as Canada, have adopted. In conclusion, the dissertation argues that a possible reorientation towards the GVCs’ model should be performed in a critical and analytical way, supported by subsequent analysis of the ideal levels of liberalization to be implemented in Brazil, taking into account the opportunities for technological and productive upgrading through the participation into global value chains

A Organização Mundial do Comércio e a contenção do protecionismo como reação à crise econômica e financeira global

This paper discusses the multilateral trading system’s restraining role regarding the adoption of barriers to trade in goods and services as a reaction to the global economic and financial crisis. The paper analyses measures implemented by Brazil and other G20 countries.Este trabalho tem como objetivo discutir em que medida o sistema multilateral de comércio tem exercido um papel central para reduzir a aplicação de barreiras restritivas aos fluxos comerciais internacionais de produtos e serviços, em reação à atual crise econômica e financeira global. Ênfase será atribuída à discussão do caso brasileiro e de outros países do G20

Doha Round, changes in the international trade regime, and the Brazilian commercial policy

Este trabalho tem como objetivo discutir os atuais desafios do multilateralismo tradicional no comércio, visíveis nos impasses da Rodada Doha, diante das novas realidades do comércio internacional globalizado, caracterizado pela dispersão e fragmentação da produção sob a lógica das cadeias de valor globais (CVG). O artigo discute a forma em que essas transformações estão desafiando pressupostos tradicionais do sistema multilateral de comércio e as negociações da Rodada Doha. Tomando o caso do Brasil como exemplo, o artigo argumenta que o descompasso entre a agenda negociadora e as novas realidades do comércio internacional reside nos próprios países-membros da OMC que, em sua maioria, ainda não pautam suas políticas comerciais e suas estratégias de inserção internacional por essas novas dinâmicas do comércio internacional. Por fim, o trabalho mostra que a política comercial brasileira durante a última década esteve desalinhada com essa nova realidade ao dar demasiada ênfase às formas tradicionais de negociação comercial, deixando de considerar as modificações essenciais ocorridas nos padrões de comércio na esteira do processo de globalização.This paper discusses the current challenges of the multilateral trade system, which are reflected in the WTO Doha Round deadlock. The main patterns of trade have changed due to the rise of global value chains and the globalization of the world economy, characterized by an increasing dispersion and fragmentation of industrial production. The article discusses the way these changes are challenging traditional assumptions of the multilateral trade system and the WTO Doha Round negotiations. Taking Brazil as an example, the paper argues that the mismatch between the negotiating agenda and the new world trade realities dwells in the very WTO member countries, which, at a great extent, have not yet aligned its trade policies to the new dynamics of the international trade. Finally, we argue that during the last ten years Brazil's trade policy has not properly considered the important changes in the international trade patterns brought about by global value chains and economic globalization

Gestão do Fomento à Cooperação Internacional em Ciência, Tecnologia e Inovação: a experiência das Fundações de Amparo à Pesquisa (FAPs) brasileiras1

A cooperação internacional brasileira em ciência, tecnologia e inovação tem apresentado crescimento exponencial. Este artigo analisa o papel das Fundações de Amparo à Pesquisa (FAPs) estaduais no fomento da cooperação internacional. Realizou-se um diagnóstico aprofundado que apontou as principais assimetrias estaduais de apoio à cooperação internacional e os seus reflexos no desenvolvimento de um ecossistema de inovação à nível subnacional. Foram avaliados aspectos relacionados à gestão da cooperação internacional pelas FAPs, assim como os instrumentos utilizados, países prioritários e temáticas de maior proeminência. Como metodologia, utilizou-se pesquisa documental e revisão bibliográfica, aplicação de questionário e realização de entrevistas de aprofundamento. As conclusões foram tecidas no sentido de evidenciar que apesar da maioria das FAPs empreenderem atividades de fomento à cooperação internacional, a gestão do fomento dessas atividades ainda pode ser aprimorad

Pervasive gaps in Amazonian ecological research

Biodiversity loss is one of the main challenges of our time,1,2 and attempts to address it require a clear un derstanding of how ecological communities respond to environmental change across time and space.3,4 While the increasing availability of global databases on ecological communities has advanced our knowledge of biodiversity sensitivity to environmental changes,5–7 vast areas of the tropics remain understudied.8–11 In the American tropics, Amazonia stands out as the world’s most diverse rainforest and the primary source of Neotropical biodiversity,12 but it remains among the least known forests in America and is often underrepre sented in biodiversity databases.13–15 To worsen this situation, human-induced modifications16,17 may elim inate pieces of the Amazon’s biodiversity puzzle before we can use them to understand how ecological com munities are responding. To increase generalization and applicability of biodiversity knowledge,18,19 it is thus crucial to reduce biases in ecological research, particularly in regions projected to face the most pronounced environmental changes. We integrate ecological community metadata of 7,694 sampling sites for multiple or ganism groups in a machine learning model framework to map the research probability across the Brazilian Amazonia, while identifying the region’s vulnerability to environmental change. 15%–18% of the most ne glected areas in ecological research are expected to experience severe climate or land use changes by 2050. This means that unless we take immediate action, we will not be able to establish their current status, much less monitor how it is changing and what is being lostinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Pervasive gaps in Amazonian ecological research

Biodiversity loss is one of the main challenges of our time,1,2 and attempts to address it require a clear understanding of how ecological communities respond to environmental change across time and space.3,4 While the increasing availability of global databases on ecological communities has advanced our knowledge of biodiversity sensitivity to environmental changes,5,6,7 vast areas of the tropics remain understudied.8,9,10,11 In the American tropics, Amazonia stands out as the world's most diverse rainforest and the primary source of Neotropical biodiversity,12 but it remains among the least known forests in America and is often underrepresented in biodiversity databases.13,14,15 To worsen this situation, human-induced modifications16,17 may eliminate pieces of the Amazon's biodiversity puzzle before we can use them to understand how ecological communities are responding. To increase generalization and applicability of biodiversity knowledge,18,19 it is thus crucial to reduce biases in ecological research, particularly in regions projected to face the most pronounced environmental changes. We integrate ecological community metadata of 7,694 sampling sites for multiple organism groups in a machine learning model framework to map the research probability across the Brazilian Amazonia, while identifying the region's vulnerability to environmental change. 15%–18% of the most neglected areas in ecological research are expected to experience severe climate or land use changes by 2050. This means that unless we take immediate action, we will not be able to establish their current status, much less monitor how it is changing and what is being lost

Optimasi Portofolio Resiko Menggunakan Model Markowitz MVO Dikaitkan dengan Keterbatasan Manusia dalam Memprediksi Masa Depan dalam Perspektif Al-Qur`an

Risk portfolio on modern finance has become increasingly technical, requiring the use of sophisticated mathematical tools in both research and practice. Since companies cannot insure themselves completely against risk, as human incompetence in predicting the future precisely that written in Al-Quran surah Luqman verse 34, they have to manage it to yield an optimal portfolio. The objective here is to minimize the variance among all portfolios, or alternatively, to maximize expected return among all portfolios that has at least a certain expected return. Furthermore, this study focuses on optimizing risk portfolio so called Markowitz MVO (Mean-Variance Optimization). Some theoretical frameworks for analysis are arithmetic mean, geometric mean, variance, covariance, linear programming, and quadratic programming. Moreover, finding a minimum variance portfolio produces a convex quadratic programming, that is minimizing the objective function ðð¥with constraintsð ð 𥠥 ðandð´ð¥ = ð. The outcome of this research is the solution of optimal risk portofolio in some investments that could be finished smoothly using MATLAB R2007b software together with its graphic analysis

Differential cross section measurements for the production of a W boson in association with jets in proton–proton collisions at √s = 7 TeV

Measurements are reported of differential cross sections for the production of a W boson, which decays into a muon and a neutrino, in association with jets, as a function of several variables, including the transverse momenta (pT) and pseudorapidities of the four leading jets, the scalar sum of jet transverse momenta (HT), and the difference in azimuthal angle between the directions of each jet and the muon. The data sample of pp collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of 7 TeV was collected with the CMS detector at the LHC and corresponds to an integrated luminosity of 5.0 fb[superscript −1]. The measured cross sections are compared to predictions from Monte Carlo generators, MadGraph + pythia and sherpa, and to next-to-leading-order calculations from BlackHat + sherpa. The differential cross sections are found to be in agreement with the predictions, apart from the pT distributions of the leading jets at high pT values, the distributions of the HT at high-HT and low jet multiplicity, and the distribution of the difference in azimuthal angle between the leading jet and the muon at low values.United States. Dept. of EnergyNational Science Foundation (U.S.)Alfred P. Sloan Foundatio